Emma Sanderson, Managing Director of Momenta Connect, part of Outcomes First Group, a leading provider of world class education, discusses the early identification of school absence.
In England, school absence is now a big, system-wide issue, not a rare problem. In 2023/24, around 1.49 million pupils, 1 in 5 children (20%), were persistently absent, meaning they missed at least 10% of school. More than 170,000 children (about 2.3%) were severely absent, missing at least half of all lessons.
These numbers show why early identification is so important. If schools wait until a child has already missed weeks or months, the problem is much harder to fix.
Small changes in attendance have big effects
Government research is clear: even “small” dips in attendance can seriously affect results. A recent Department for Education report found that Year 11 pupils with attendance over 95% are almost twice as likely to get a grade 5 in English and maths as pupils who attend only 90–95% of the time.
Put simply, missing one day every two weeks (around 90% attendance) can halve a child’s chances of getting strong passes in English and maths. Because of this, early identification is not just an admin task. It is directly linked to pupils’ GCSE grades, future study options, and even future earnings.
Why early identification is essential
Recent attendance statistics show that while absence rates have started to fall slightly, they are still well above pre-pandemic levels. If schools do not act early, pupils can quickly move from “a few days off” to being persistently or even severely absent.
Early identification helps schools to:
- Catch “drift” – notice when a pupil’s attendance falls from 97% to 93% before it reaches 85% or less.
- Act before patterns set in – habits form fast; early support is more likely to work.
- Protect learning – every extra day in school improves the chance of meeting expected standards.
Using data well
The Education Endowment Foundation’s review of attendance interventions found that the most promising approaches are driven by good data and tailored to individual pupils.
This means schools should:
- Track attendance daily, not just termly.
- Look at patterns by day of the week, class, subject and group (for example, SEND or disadvantaged pupils).
- Set clear triggers for concern, such as:
- attendance dropping below 95%,
- repeated lateness,
- frequent single days of absence (often Mondays or Fridays).
Data should never be used just to “name and shame”. Its real purpose is to flag pupils who may need help, so staff can talk to families early and find out what is going on.
The bottom line
The evidence is clear:
- Absence is high and affects millions of children.
- Even a small fall in attendance can cut a pupil’s chances of good grades.
- Interventions work best when they are early, data-informed and tailored.
For schools, treating attendance data as an early warning system, not a report after the event, is one of the most powerful ways to protect pupils’ learning, wellbeing, and future choices.
